Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A major talking point of the EPL this campaign is the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way sides are finding goals increasingly from set-pieces as an alternative.
Looking at goal sources to matchday 11 last season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer altogether.
If we look at the bigger picture, the number of shots clubs are making show a staggering 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last time out.
And despite the notable jump in set-play finishes, there have actually been only two additional shots created from these situations outside of penalties, indicating how effective teams have been at discovering methods to score from set-pieces.
Goal Averages Show the Tale
The 301 goals scored in 110 games so far calculates at 2.74 scores each match, if this persists for the entire campaign could be the lowest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).
However, only 196 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the lowest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76).
That campaign additionally represents the only Premier League season to see scoring more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).
Which Sides Bear the Most Responsibility?
When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolves have experienced by far the biggest decline, registering a mere four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.
Excluding Wolves, the EPL's drop in open play goals is predominantly a London phenomenon, with five out of the London's seven clubs netting at least five less scores from open-play than the prior season.
Honestly, this is mainly because them scoring lots of goals at the beginning of the previous campaign as opposed to their genuine struggle to score in open-play this campaign.
Conversely Man City have experienced the biggest increase, with all but one of their 23 goals to date arriving in open play.
Set-Piece Success
We've compared newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have recorded three more goals in open play than Southampton achieved in matchday 11 leading to demotion the previous campaign.
When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have seen the largest rise, with both sides compensating for the five less scores that they've netted in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.
Man United have netted two times more scores from set-plays as they managed in matchday 11 last season ahead of their coach took over, while the Black Cats again are more effective at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.
City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-pieces, because they've netted three less than last season, similar to Forest, even if this may result from the tactical shift they have tried to implement.
Overall Patterns
Six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – represent the current campaign's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open play and increased from set-pieces, while City represent the unique club to buck the trend to date by achieving the exact opposite.
It remains to be seen to watch if teams persist to place such emphasis on set-plays as the season goes on or if they find again their general attacking flair and begin scoring additional scores in open play as well.