Everyday Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics
The typical figure of per-day murders monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new government figures. However, security analysts have advised that homicide figures may not signal better countrywide stability.
Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures
There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in homicides that have been recorded in these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that last month the least number of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.
Recent Background and Government Strategy
Fierce cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.
That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.
At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it each day.”
The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:
- Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
- Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
- Enhanced collaboration between various departments.
Expert Caution and Data Limitations
However, public safety researchers cautioned that using murder statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.
“It would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”
Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.
“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may hide periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.
“Using the daily average makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.
Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress
An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.
“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration
However despite these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.
A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.
“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.